Professor Julian Cooper, expert of the Royal Institute of International Affairs, in an interview to WEJ, spoke about the prospects of the Customs Union of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan, the potential for its expansion and the risks to Eurasian Customs Union stable development.

Professor Cooper, the Eurasian Customs Union has been functioning now for over two years, how would you assess its effectiveness?
It is too early to draw any firm conclusions. However, its central administrative structure, the Eurasian Economic Commission, has undertaken a very considerable volume of work in a relatively brief period to establish the basic institutions of the Union and the closely related Single Economic Space (SES). Much progress has been made in developing improved administration of customs, technical regulation, sanitary, veterinary and phytosanitary regulation and non-tariff measures. The SES is developing, especially in relation to the free movements of goods and services, but much work remains to be done to secure the other two freedoms, of labour and capital. Under the leadership of Viktor Khristenko the Commission has formed an impressively professional team of officials and a businesslike working culture. Its international standing has been steadily rising.

Most people perceive that Russia’s financial position is quite stable. The country’s currency reserves are around $500 billion, which is almost three times the public debt. But considering the slowing rates of economic growth, the high dependency on oil and gas, and the accelerating outflow of capital from the country, the 2014 macroeconomic forecast does not have any notable successes in store for Russia.

The Russian economy in the last quarter grew only by 1.2%, while the rate of growth of investments and industrial production is approaching zero, which are evidence that the economic situation in Russia is stagnating. The Russian Ministry of Economic Development (MED) expects that stagnation will continue in 2014, and that the depreciation of the ruble will be more rapid than previously anticipated. According to the MED, the economic growth forecast for 2014 has been lowered from 3% to 2.5%. Experts at the International Monetary Fund provide the same pessimistic macroeconomic outlook for 2014. The MED also lowered its longterm economic development forecast to 2030 from 4% to 2.5%.  Thus, the country will share last place with Brazil within the BRICS group of countries, by growth rate.

“In 2014 the country will be in recession, although the reduction in GDP will not exceed 0.5–0.7%,”  Vladislav Inozemtsev, Doctor of Economics and Director of the Centre for Post-Industrial Studies, told WEJ. “Government budget revenues for the first time in recent years will fall (by 4–7%) due to a reduction in tax payments and a slight decrease in the value of exports (primarily due to discounts on gas, a general reduction in its price, as well as falling metal prices). Business will continue to shy away from extremely excessive tax regimes, which will also impact declining budget revenues.”

For a long time, Mexico was to North America as China was at the end of the 20th century, with its cheap labor, high workforce productivity, and low quality. But government stakes in developing high-tech industries, Mexico’s unprecedented openness to international trade, and rising wages in China have turned this country into an ideal place for the production and subsequent export of a whole range of goods. Mexico is already the world’s largest exporter of plasma televisions and Blackberry smartphones, and cars stamped “Made in Mexico” are taking to the roads far beyond North America.

Timed to coincide with Republic Day on October 29, Turkey launched a massive transportation project: the opening of a railway tunnel underneath the Bosphorus Strait that has taken almost 10 years to construct. Marmaray (from the word Marmara, or the Sea of Marmara, and Ray – the word for rails) joined the old European and new Asian parts of Istanbul with underwater commuter trains. And so the dream of an Ottoman sultan from a century and a half ago was fulfilled.
Marmaray should help to relieve the densest Istanbul traffic. Travel time between the Asian and European sides of the Bosphorus will be reduced from half an hour (by ferry) or even an hour and a half (sitting in traffic on the bridges) to just four minutes. The first underwater tunnel to connect two continents in the world will carry 75,000 passengers an hour and almost 1 million passengers a day.

The lengthy U.S. economic recovery is accompanied by growth in economic indicators across the board, including in sales of motor vehicles, which have reached record levels. In order to keep pace with the increased demand, all assembly line facilities in the United States have maxed out their manufacturing capacity and are today producing more cars than ever before. In the first half of 2013 alone, 5.7 million cars were manufactured in the U.S., exceeding the same period last year by 5.9%. In addition, the American auto manufacturing capacity is beginning to return home from China.

Employees at the Pilsen Steel Mill are back to work, having stopped production in the middle of June. Half of the 900 plant’s employees are back at the machines again and the other half will resume within the next month. Full production is planned to start in late November. This was all possible thanks to financial support from the KKCG Investment Group, owned by billionaire Karel Komarek.

Since the mill shut down, the Czech press has been circulating a lot of rumors about the plant going bankrupt, which the Pilsen management has been trying in vain to refute. “The Czech investment group gave us a loan in early October, with which we re-started production,” said Pavel Ratislav, Director of Human Resources for Pilsen Steel. “Production is now gradually gaining momentum. All workflows are controlled by the creditors’ committee which sanctions important changes.”