Wednesday, January 22

BANKING & FINANCE

2013 marked another record year for Spanish tourism: The problems of other Mediterranean countries and the attractive consumer prices not only attracted 5.6% more tourists than the previous year, but raised a number of vital questions for the sector.

Over the past year, 60.66 million international tourists visited Spain, which is even more than in 2007, when the Spanish coast was especially popular (58.6 million). Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy was the first to announce the joyous news, even before the statistics agencies. In doing so, he tried to support the positive disposition of the sector and the citizens. He said that tourism would soon get them out of this infamous crisis. In some ways, of course he’s right: 10% of the Spanish GDP comes from tourism and that has been on the rise since late 2012. Worried about political instability in Egypt, tourists changed their vacation plans and headed to the Spanish coast to enjoy the sun. The recovery of demand in the travel business has been a positive factor for several European countries. The tide of tourists has naturally affected the balance sheets: At the end of 2013, the Spanish tourism industry brought in more than €45.1 billion. By number of tourists, Spain overtook China, and came in third after the U.S. and France.

It is expected that the mechanism will allow for the creation of a so-called Single Resolution Fund that will total €55 billion over the next ten years, financed by contributions from banks into national divisions of the fund. This plan is supposed to provide the financing for the process of closing bankrupt banks without the need for funds from small investors. The framework of the SRM also makes the European Commission a regulator for the banking system, complete with the right to decide whether or not to close troubled banks within the EU countries.

European officials enthusiastically approved the plan at the end of last December. “This is great news. It is also in our interest that all banks in the European Union, not just in the Eurozone, were stable. In addition, this compromise finally breaks the vicious cycle between banks and the government,” said Czech Deputy Minister of Finance Radek Urban shortly after an agreement was reached. European Commissioner for Internal Market and Services Michel Barnier himself called the agreement a revolutionary decision that will “finally put an end to supporting banks at the taxpayer’s expense,” referring to the fact that, during the financial crisis, the EU provided financial assistance to troubled banks to the tune of €1.6 trillion.

Created in 2011, today the Eurasian Customs Union (ECU) is the largest economic platform in the former Soviet Union. Made up of Russia, Kazakhstan, and Belarus, the ECU is a common customs territory with total annual external trade of $939.3 billion and internal trade of $68.6 billion. The ECU’s main objective is to intensify economic relations and strengthen the overall position of Customs Union members on the world stage. The ECU faces some major challenges in the near future, including prospects for expansion, which is directly dependent on its economic attractiveness and ability to offer favorable terms to all participants.

Most people perceive that Russia’s financial position is quite stable. The country’s currency reserves are around $500 billion, which is almost three times the public debt. But considering the slowing rates of economic growth, the high dependency on oil and gas, and the accelerating outflow of capital from the country, the 2014 macroeconomic forecast does not have any notable successes in store for Russia.

The Russian economy in the last quarter grew only by 1.2%, while the rate of growth of investments and industrial production is approaching zero, which are evidence that the economic situation in Russia is stagnating. The Russian Ministry of Economic Development (MED) expects that stagnation will continue in 2014, and that the depreciation of the ruble will be more rapid than previously anticipated. According to the MED, the economic growth forecast for 2014 has been lowered from 3% to 2.5%. Experts at the International Monetary Fund provide the same pessimistic macroeconomic outlook for 2014. The MED also lowered its longterm economic development forecast to 2030 from 4% to 2.5%.  Thus, the country will share last place with Brazil within the BRICS group of countries, by growth rate.

“In 2014 the country will be in recession, although the reduction in GDP will not exceed 0.5–0.7%,”  Vladislav Inozemtsev, Doctor of Economics and Director of the Centre for Post-Industrial Studies, told WEJ. “Government budget revenues for the first time in recent years will fall (by 4–7%) due to a reduction in tax payments and a slight decrease in the value of exports (primarily due to discounts on gas, a general reduction in its price, as well as falling metal prices). Business will continue to shy away from extremely excessive tax regimes, which will also impact declining budget revenues.”

Employees at the Pilsen Steel Mill are back to work, having stopped production in the middle of June. Half of the 900 plant’s employees are back at the machines again and the other half will resume within the next month. Full production is planned to start in late November. This was all possible thanks to financial support from the KKCG Investment Group, owned by billionaire Karel Komarek.

Since the mill shut down, the Czech press has been circulating a lot of rumors about the plant going bankrupt, which the Pilsen management has been trying in vain to refute. “The Czech investment group gave us a loan in early October, with which we re-started production,” said Pavel Ratislav, Director of Human Resources for Pilsen Steel. “Production is now gradually gaining momentum. All workflows are controlled by the creditors’ committee which sanctions important changes.”

There is a growing clamor in the Eurozone from those who believe that the euro is overvalued, and that this is blocking the competitiveness of European products on world markets.

Arnaud Montebourg, a French government minister, said in late October that the euro should decline against the dollar by about 10%: “Ten percent is not even a devaluation, but just a correction of the exchange rate, in order to better reflect the reality of the Eurozone.” European Commissioner for Industry Antonio Tajani, according to Le Monde, agrees: “The euro is too strong now,” but stresses that he is only expressing his personal opinion and not the official position of the European Commission.

French President Francois Hollande already warned in February of the danger of an excessively strong euro. Speaking before the European Parliament in Strasbourg, he said that fiscal policy needed to be changed in the Eurozone, to make the majority of the participating countries less vulnerable to foreign exchange fluctuations. However, these proposals were not supported at that time, not least because of the position of Germany, whose exports benefit from the strong euro.

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