Friday, May 9

AGRICULTURAL ECONOMY

Analysts at World Economic Journal have taken the advice of Goldman Sachs’s Jim O’Neill in replacing Korea with Nigeria in the new grouping of developing economies. They have also evaluated the most important macroeconomic performance indicators of these countries.
The current statistics are relentless: According to 2012 results, the economic growth of the four BRIC countries stalled, and in 2013 the situation did not improve. To judge from forecasts, the opportunities are very limited. This means that investors are beginning to withdraw their assets, from both funds and the countries themselves.

Most people perceive that Russia’s financial position is quite stable. The country’s currency reserves are around $500 billion, which is almost three times the public debt. But considering the slowing rates of economic growth, the high dependency on oil and gas, and the accelerating outflow of capital from the country, the 2014 macroeconomic forecast does not have any notable successes in store for Russia.

The Russian economy in the last quarter grew only by 1.2%, while the rate of growth of investments and industrial production is approaching zero, which are evidence that the economic situation in Russia is stagnating. The Russian Ministry of Economic Development (MED) expects that stagnation will continue in 2014, and that the depreciation of the ruble will be more rapid than previously anticipated. According to the MED, the economic growth forecast for 2014 has been lowered from 3% to 2.5%. Experts at the International Monetary Fund provide the same pessimistic macroeconomic outlook for 2014. The MED also lowered its longterm economic development forecast to 2030 from 4% to 2.5%.  Thus, the country will share last place with Brazil within the BRICS group of countries, by growth rate.

“In 2014 the country will be in recession, although the reduction in GDP will not exceed 0.5–0.7%,”  Vladislav Inozemtsev, Doctor of Economics and Director of the Centre for Post-Industrial Studies, told WEJ. “Government budget revenues for the first time in recent years will fall (by 4–7%) due to a reduction in tax payments and a slight decrease in the value of exports (primarily due to discounts on gas, a general reduction in its price, as well as falling metal prices). Business will continue to shy away from extremely excessive tax regimes, which will also impact declining budget revenues.”

For a long time, Mexico was to North America as China was at the end of the 20th century, with its cheap labor, high workforce productivity, and low quality. But government stakes in developing high-tech industries, Mexico’s unprecedented openness to international trade, and rising wages in China have turned this country into an ideal place for the production and subsequent export of a whole range of goods. Mexico is already the world’s largest exporter of plasma televisions and Blackberry smartphones, and cars stamped “Made in Mexico” are taking to the roads far beyond North America.

Employees at the Pilsen Steel Mill are back to work, having stopped production in the middle of June. Half of the 900 plant’s employees are back at the machines again and the other half will resume within the next month. Full production is planned to start in late November. This was all possible thanks to financial support from the KKCG Investment Group, owned by billionaire Karel Komarek.

Since the mill shut down, the Czech press has been circulating a lot of rumors about the plant going bankrupt, which the Pilsen management has been trying in vain to refute. “The Czech investment group gave us a loan in early October, with which we re-started production,” said Pavel Ratislav, Director of Human Resources for Pilsen Steel. “Production is now gradually gaining momentum. All workflows are controlled by the creditors’ committee which sanctions important changes.”

There is a growing clamor in the Eurozone from those who believe that the euro is overvalued, and that this is blocking the competitiveness of European products on world markets.

Arnaud Montebourg, a French government minister, said in late October that the euro should decline against the dollar by about 10%: “Ten percent is not even a devaluation, but just a correction of the exchange rate, in order to better reflect the reality of the Eurozone.” European Commissioner for Industry Antonio Tajani, according to Le Monde, agrees: “The euro is too strong now,” but stresses that he is only expressing his personal opinion and not the official position of the European Commission.

French President Francois Hollande already warned in February of the danger of an excessively strong euro. Speaking before the European Parliament in Strasbourg, he said that fiscal policy needed to be changed in the Eurozone, to make the majority of the participating countries less vulnerable to foreign exchange fluctuations. However, these proposals were not supported at that time, not least because of the position of Germany, whose exports benefit from the strong euro.

The borders of wine-making regions have expanded considerably, and companies that have invested money in the wine business are taking a much closer look at little-known regions, which received little attention before. Some experts say that global warming is responsible for the changes in the wine menu, but others believe that investors are trying to reduce costs. One way or another, the wine market may be experiencing new leaders fairly soon.

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