Professor Jeffrey Sachs, a renowned economist and leading voice on global sustainable development, shared with WEJ his thought-provoking analysis of the evolving geopolitical environment, the rising influence of BRICS nations and the path forward for achieving the SDGs.
Considering the current global environment, how do you foresee the US dollar maintaining its central role in the global economy and supporting US leadership?
The US dollar is of course the dominant currency today, but I believe that this dominance will end over the next 10-20 years as we move to a multi-currency global system. There are three reasons. First, and most importantly, the US has weaponized the dollar by confiscating the dollar holdings of other governments (Russia, Venezuela, Afghanistan, Iran, and others), leading the BRICS nations to construct a non-dollar settlements system.
Second, the US share of the world economy is also declining over time. Third, technological innovations—especially the development of real-time digital settlements using central bank digital currencies (CBDCs)—will mean that the global banking system will decline in importance for settlements, while the world’s central banks will rise in importance. That change will diminish the role of the dollar, which is based in part on the role of dollar-based commercial banking.
In the realm of technology, do you believe emerging power centres could pose a significant challenge to US dominance?
The world’s three main centres of technological innovation are clearly the US, EU, and northeast Asia (China, Japan, Korea). I believe that China, Japan and Korea will become more closely integrated economically and politically over time, and that northeast Asia will become the world’s largest integrated region for both innovation and manufacturing of cutting-edge green and digital technologies.
The global influence of BRICS and other emerging nations is growing. Could this shift lead to positive changes in international governance? Or is there a risk of increased international fragmentation and destabilisation?
Starting around 1500, the West began a long-term rise in power and technological leadership, leading eventually to the dominance of the West over Asia by the mid-1800s. That dominance is now ending, and this is a beneficial change. It means greater fairness and equality of wealth, prosperity and power. It should lead to the end of poverty. Yet we need to ensure that this favourable trend leads not to a defensive war by the West to maintain its hegemony, but rather to a peaceful transition to a multipolar world under the UN Charter.
Emerging countries and cities have much to learn from each other, and accomplish together. Are the current international cooperation mechanisms fully adequate for this purpose?
The UN system should play a major role in creating and supporting new mechanisms for international cooperation. To serve its purposes effectively, the UN needs far greater financial firepower (a larger budget and the capacity to mobilise global savings). Next year’s Financing for Development Summit (Madrid, June 30-July 3) is an important occasion to strengthen the financing of the UN system in support of global sustainable development.
You recently highlighted that «vigorous global cooperation is the only way to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals.» How do you envision this cooperation being effectively achieved?
T he world has adopted many crucial goals, including the Sustainable Development Goals, the Paris Climate Agreement, The Kunming-Montreal Biodiversity Framework, Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament, and others. Yet we are not achieving these goals. We urgently need practical solutions – to achieve the goals that are crucial for the world’s future wellbeing, indeed crucial for the survival of humanity. I believe sustainable development is achievable—but it will require new forms of politics and geopolitics, and a reformed global financial architecture. The main barrier to global cooperation is actually the current attitude of the US government. During the past three decades, the US tried to assert a USled, unipolar world rather than a UN-led, multipolar world. This US quest for unipolarity has failed, and has dramatically raised tensions between the US and China, Russia, Iran, and other powers. These tensions need to be overcome, mainly by the US finally accepting a truly multipolar world that engages in cooperative problem-solving at all scales – from local communities to cities, provinces, nations, multi-country regions, and globally according to the UN Charter.
How should the media contribute to reshaping global information flows with a forward-looking approach?
Leading media initiatives, such as World Economic Journal, can maximise impact by highlighting practical and workable solutions for the great challenges of our time: ending extreme poverty, quality education for all, quality healthcare for all, peaceful cooperation among the major powers, nuclear disarmament, peaceful resolution of crises, environmental sustainability, and others.
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